Will Santa Come To Wall Street This Year?

Best wishes to all of our Wall Street Breakfast readership as we go into the holiday season. WSB won’t be published with markets closed tomorrow, but tune back in on Friday.

Also, a reminder… The WSB poll on the “Outlook For 2026” is still open. Take the survey here if you haven’t already, and see the current results.

Latest in trending news on Seeking Alpha:

Targeted range: The notion of “decimal-point certainty is just absurd,” said U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, outlining that the Fed could revisit its 2% inflation target.

Improvements coming: Waymo, the self-driving car startup owned by Alphabet (GOOGL), is planning to update its software following the power outage in San Francisco.

Valued at $10B? BP (BP) is selling a 65% stake in Castrol to Stonepeak. Talks between the two companies emerged as part of BP’s divestment push.

Things are looking good for an upcoming “Santa Claus Rally” after the S&P 500 (SP500) logged its 38th record close of 2025. The seasonally bullish trend typically sees equities rise over the last five trading sessions of December (which begins today) and the first two trading days of January. Note that the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will close early this afternoon, shuttering at 1 PM ET for Christmas Eve, with SIFMA and bond markets closing an hour later at 2 PM ET.

Should investors believe in Santa this year? The indicator was first recorded in 1972 by Wall Street legend Yale Hirsch, the creator of Stock Trader’s Almanac. He famously declared, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” While Yale passed away in 2021, the Stock Trader’s Almanac is now produced by his son Jeff, who notes the importance of taking the “Santa Claus Rally” into consideration along with the “First Five Days” early warning system (how stocks perform in the first five sessions of the year) and the “January Barometer” (S&P 500 performance in the first month of the year) to know what to expect in 2026.

The three indicators are part of the so-called “January Trifecta.” When all three hit and record positive returns, it can signal bullishness and a time to buy, according to Hirsch. Historical data suggests a more than 90% chance the market will be up that year, with a 17.7% average gain for the S&P 500.

More stockings: The recent rally is spreading to other areas of the market, like precious and industrial metals, although the reasons might be different. Gold (XAUUSD:CUR) just climbed to an all-time record above $4,500, notching its best annual rally since 1979, while silver (XAGUSD:CUR) has exploded to historic highs, trading above $70 an ounce. Analysts have attributed the rise to falling interest rates and aggressive central bank buying, as well as institutional capitulation and geopolitical tensions. Here are the top-rated copper stocks by SA Quant as the metal breached $12,000 for the first time

Here’s the latest Seeking Alpha analysis

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My Favorite REITs For 2026

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Nebius: It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like Trouble

What else is happening…

Wegovy pill (NVO) could be a game-changer, but others are not far behind.

Cyber for AI: ServiceNow (NOW) confirms $7.75B deal for Armis.

Audit finds that U.S. F-35 fleet fell short of readiness targets.

U.S. drone market faces shake-up after FCC ruling – Needham.

Rocket competition: United Launch Alliance (BA, LMT) CEO resigns.

What investors can expect from Costco (COST) in 2026.

U.S. moves closer to approving deep-sea mining in global waters.

YTD performance: This is the top mortgage finance services stock.

Paramount’s (PSKY) new bid is ‘not sufficient’ – major WBD stockholder.

SA Asks: Who will Trump end up nominating for Fed chair?

Today’s Markets

In Asia, Japan -0.1%. Hong Kong +0.2%. China +0.5%. India -0.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London +-0.1%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt closed.
Futures at 7:00, Dow -0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude +0.3% to $58.55. Gold +0.2% to $4514.30. Bitcoin -0.2% to $87,247.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 4.16%

On The Calendar

See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today’s economic calendar.